Monday, June 25, 2018

4 Social Security myths and why they're wrong

Once again, there's dire news about Social Security. Its trustees claim in their 2018 report that�they must tap the program's sacred "Trust Funds"�to cover this year��s benefits. And they warn that the funds�will be depleted by 2034, forcing steep benefit�cuts, unless Congress fixes things. Scary.

And wrong.�Most Social Security fears rest�on myths. Here are four of the biggest �� and the reasons why they're�overblown.

Myth No. 1: If the funds run�out, today��s workers will never get what they put in.

Reality: As I wrote last December, the Social Security "trusts" aren't�in the ��lockbox�� of "Saturday Night Live" fame. It is a pay-as-you-go program. Your contributions pay current retirees. And when you retire, workers pay your benefits. The funds are�merely random accumulated surpluses from years when revenues happened to exceed benefits. This was never about retirees recouping contributions.

Myth No. 2: Tapping the trust funds�starts a spiral toward doom.

Reality: Actually, we��ve tapped them�before. In 1982, Social Security ��borrowed�� from the Disability Insurance Trust and Medicare Trust to pay all retirement benefits. The trustees projected that wouldn��t work past mid-1983.

But 1982 was also the last time they tapped the trust fund, thanks to 1983��s Social Security reforms. The trust didn��t expire �� it accumulated a fat surplus over the next quarter century. Retirees got paid in full, on time. Tapping the fund prompted politicians to act and put in simple fixes.

Myth No. 3: Preserving Social Security requires huge tax hikes or benefit cuts.

Reality: In 1982, one alarmist warned paying full benefits would eventually require Social Security to collect 44 percent�of Americans�� annual earnings. Ouch! That never happened. Not even close.

Patching Social Security then merely required minor adjustments, partly to retirement age. Back then, combined Social Security taxes (payroll tax plus employee contributions) were 10.8 percent�of eligible income. Politicians simply accelerated a previously planned increase to 12.4 percent, today��s level. Meanwhile, the retirement age didn��t change for anyone born before 1938 ���folks over age 45 then. Changes for others were modest, from 65 to 66 for folks born up to 1955, and �� eventually �� 67 for those born in or after 1960. Those changes, along with making some Social Security benefits taxable plus several minor tweaks, covered everything for decades.

Congress could do something similar now. Minor tax increases staggered over the decades would do it. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that raising�the combined tax rate to 14.8 percent�over the next 25 years would close two-thirds of the projected funding gap, costing workers an average additional $11.50 per week. Congress might also raise the cap on earnings eligible for Social Security taxes, currently $128,400. Congress initially made 90 percent�of total income eligible for Social Security taxes, but indexed it to average wage growth. Because incomes for folks above the cap outpaced this, more than one-third of workers�� income is now exempt. Raising the cap �� and the benefits cap in return �� could ease much of the shortfall. So could hiking millennials�� retirement age �� since they will surely live longer than earlier generations �� and adding incentives to delay benefits beyond age 70.


Myth No. 4: Social Security��s problems are part of a larger ��demographic crisis.��

Reality: This is only a ��problem�� because we��re living longer, healthier lives. In 1940, five years after Social Security��s birth, the average 65-year-old man and woman had 12.7 and 14.7 years left, respectively. Those last years were difficult after lifetimes spent working at physically demanding jobs. Today? Average life expectancy at 65 is another 18 years for men and 20.6 for women. It��ll get even longer, as discussed in my Jan.�21 column. And that is great for Social Security��s future.�Full benefits kick in at 70. Having longer, healthy lives makes it easier to keep working in our services-driven economy until age 70 and beyond, boosting Social Security revenues for decades consistent with longer lives.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, author of 11 books, four of which were "New York Times" bestsellers, and is No. 200 on the Forbes 400 list of richest Americans. Follow him on Twitter @KennethLFisher

The views and opinions expressed in this column are the author��s and do not necessarily reflect those of USA TODAY.

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Sunday, June 24, 2018

Head to Head Survey: Iteris (ITI) and UTStarcom (UTSI)

Iteris (NASDAQ: ITI) and UTStarcom (NASDAQ:UTSI) are both small-cap computer and technology companies, but which is the better business? We will compare the two companies based on the strength of their earnings, institutional ownership, risk, dividends, valuation, profitability and analyst recommendations.

Volatility and Risk

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Iteris has a beta of -0.11, suggesting that its share price is 111% less volatile than the S&P 500. Comparatively, UTStarcom has a beta of 0.26, suggesting that its share price is 74% less volatile than the S&P 500.

Insider and Institutional Ownership

30.1% of Iteris shares are held by institutional investors. Comparatively, 26.5% of UTStarcom shares are held by institutional investors. 4.3% of Iteris shares are held by insiders. Comparatively, 2.7% of UTStarcom shares are held by insiders. Strong institutional ownership is an indication that endowments, hedge funds and large money managers believe a stock will outperform the market over the long term.

Analyst Recommendations

This is a breakdown of recent ratings and target prices for Iteris and UTStarcom, as reported by MarketBeat.com.

Sell Ratings Hold Ratings Buy Ratings Strong Buy Ratings Rating Score
Iteris 0 0 4 0 3.00
UTStarcom 0 0 1 0 3.00

Iteris presently has a consensus target price of $9.13, indicating a potential upside of 81.41%. UTStarcom has a consensus target price of $5.00, indicating a potential upside of 22.85%. Given Iteris’ higher probable upside, equities analysts plainly believe Iteris is more favorable than UTStarcom.

Profitability

This table compares Iteris and UTStarcom’s net margins, return on equity and return on assets.

Net Margins Return on Equity Return on Assets
Iteris -3.40% -10.29% -6.52%
UTStarcom N/A N/A N/A

Valuation & Earnings

This table compares Iteris and UTStarcom’s top-line revenue, earnings per share (EPS) and valuation.

Gross Revenue Price/Sales Ratio Net Income Earnings Per Share Price/Earnings Ratio
Iteris $103.73 million 1.61 -$3.52 million ($0.04) -125.75
UTStarcom $98.29 million 1.47 $6.98 million N/A N/A

UTStarcom has lower revenue, but higher earnings than Iteris.

Summary

Iteris beats UTStarcom on 6 of the 11 factors compared between the two stocks.

Iteris Company Profile

Iteris, Inc. provides intelligent information solutions to traffic management and global agribusiness markets worldwide. It operates in three segments: Roadway Sensors, Transportation Systems, and Agriculture and Weather Analytics. The Roadway Sensors segment provides vehicle detection and information systems and products for traffic intersection control, incident detection, and roadway traffic data collection applications. Its products include Vantage detection system to detect vehicle presence at intersections, as well as vehicle count, speed, and other traffic data used in traffic management systems; Vantage Vector video/radar hybrid product, an vehicle detection sensor with capabilities, including stop bar detection, advanced-zone detection, and sensing; Vantage systems equipped with smartcycle capability to differentiate between bicycles and other vehicles with a single video detection camera; VersiCam, an integrated camera and processor video detection system; VantageLive!, a cloud-based subscription service; and SmartSpan, PedTrax ,Velocity, VantageLive, and P-series products. The Transportation Systems segment offers transportation engineering and consulting services with a focus on the planning, design, development, and implementation of software-based systems that integrate sensors, video surveillance systems, computers, and communications equipment to enable public agencies to monitor, control, and direct traffic flow; assist in the dispatch of emergency crews; and distribute real-time information about traffic conditions. It offers iPeMS, a specialized transportation performance measurement and traffic analytics solution. The Agriculture and Weather Analytics segment offers ClearPath Weather management tools that allow users to create solutions to meet roadway maintenance decision needs; and ClearAg, a precision agriculture solution. The company serves government agencies. Iteris, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Ana, California.

UTStarcom Company Profile

UTStarcom Holdings Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecom infrastructure provider to develop technology for bandwidth from cloud-based services, mobile, streaming, and other applications. The company offers broadband packet optical transport and wireless/fixed-line access products and solutions. It focuses on delivering carrier-class broadband transport and access products and solutions optimized for mobile backhaul, metro aggregation, broadband access, Wi-Fi data, and value added services. The company provides optical transport products, such as packet transport network, next generation packet transport network, and SyncRing product lines that convert and translate data, video, voice, or other traffic into an optical signal that is transmitted over glass fiber; and SOO network (software-defined open packet optical) solution, which helps telecom operators to address the challenges related to the growth of mobile and cloud services, media streaming, and social networking, as well as new applications and services. It also offers carrier Wi-Fi products, such as solutions for managed wireless access networks, including wireless access controllers, VAS platforms, network management systems, and Wi-Fi access points for carrier and MSO markets, as well as various deployment scenarios; and a range of services, such as IPTV, high-speed Internet access, POTS, ISDN, VoIP, over twisted pair copper, and optical fiber. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Cramer: US-China trade fight 'is not serious' right now; Trump has upper hand

CNBC's Jim Cramer said Tuesday that he's not worried yet about the escalating trade conflict between the United States and China.

"Right now, this is not serious," Cramer told "Squawk on the Street." "I'm waiting for something serious to hit my way."

The "Mad Money" host said the fight would get real if Apple, Yum China or Starbucks were targeted by boycotts or some other measure.

But for now, that's not happening, Cramer said, arguing President Donald Trump has the upper hand. "The president is saying, 'You know what guys [China] ... we got more staying power than you, particularly with your stock market collapse.'"

While the Dow Jones industrial average was off more than 300 points, or about 1.3 percent, in early Tuesday trading, the carnage in China was far worse.

"There were 1,000 stocks that were down 10 percent in China. Is that good for the Chinese? Are they sitting there saying, 'Let's have a real [trade war], bring it on?' No. They're going to have to support a lot of stock. It costs them a fortune," Cramer said.

The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets overnight dropped 3.8 percent and 5.77 percent, respectively, after Trump late Monday asked the U.S. trade representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent.

That would be on top of the 25 percent import tariffs on up to $50 billion of Chinese products that Trump announced Friday. Those tariffs are set to start July 6. Chinese President Xi Jinping's administration has responded with 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion of U.S. goods.

Cramer said, "so what" to the argument that China could also start selling U.S. Treasurys as another way to get back at the U.S. "We could use a little inflection in the yield curve," he added.

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